Picton Mahoney - Insights

Commentary Absolute Alpha Commentary: As at March 31, 2023

While the returns for the fund were negative for the quarter, traditional stocks and bonds provided positive returns in Q1. The Fund continues to provide returns independent of market direction.

Source: Neil Simons

Publish Date: Apr 18, 2023

Read Time: 3 minutes

Macro Through the Eye of the Hurricane: Final Stages of the Storm Should Create Opportunity

There’s calm in the eye of a hurricane, and that period of calm may now be behind us as we enter another phase of market turbulence, spurred in part by the U.S. regional bank failures in March. With the U.S. Federal Reserve actively battling inflation, we believe an economic contraction is likely as we enter the second quarter, and a retesting of 2022 market lows remains quite possible. Learn why we think the final stages of the storm should create opportunity.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Apr 17, 2023

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at March 31, 2023

The Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Alternative Fund Cl F returned 0.46%, and Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Plus Alternative Fund Cl F returned 0.10% in the first quarter of 2023.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 14, 2023

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at March 31, 2023

After an extremely volatile year in 2022, fixed income markets are off to a wild start in 2023, with the first quarter seeing three distinct periods.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 14, 2023

Read Time: 7 minutes

Commentary Commentary Regarding Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Failure: As at March 13, 2023

Each of our portfolio management teams have shared insights below on how the events surrounding the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) last week are impacting their asset class and portfolios.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Mar 14, 2023

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at December 31, 2022

Equities staged a strong recovery rally in the fourth quarter of 2022, with peaking inflation and falling interest rates helping drive stocks higher.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 13, 2023

Read Time: 7 minutes

Commentary Absolute Alpha Commentary: As at December 31, 2022

While traditional asset markets have performed poorly in 2022, the Fund continues to provide safety and positive returns in an environment where capital preservation is important.

Source: Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jan 13, 2023

Read Time: 4 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at December 31, 2022

We believe that a peak in negative sentiment may be behind us, as macro risks such as China’s ongoing shutdowns and the energy crisis in Europe might be close to being fully priced in. Inflation expectations have tempered, which combined with an end to zero-COVID policy in China will likely reinvigorate the debate around a soft versus hard landing for the global economy.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jan 13, 2023

Read Time: 9 minutes

Macro Retest Risks Should Create Longer-Term Opportunities

Attention is steadily shifting from inflation concerns to recession risks. Inflation seems to have peaked and recession probabilities have increased considerably. We expect global markets to retest their 2022 lows in the first half of the year, which could force central banks to back off their tightening policies, setting the stage for the next cyclical upturn. The Fed may increasingly find itself in a bind: trying to tighten its way out of a supply-driven inflationary environment with the blunt instrument of monetary policy.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Jan 12, 2023

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at December 31, 2022

The Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Alternative Fund Cl F returned 1.27%, and Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Plus Alternative Fund Cl F returned 1.93% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 10, 2023

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at December 31, 2022

In Q4, the Picton Mahoney Fortified Income Fund Cl F returned 0.87% and the Picton Mahoney Fortified Income Alternative Fund Cl F also returned 0.87% underperforming the blended benchmark composed of 75% ICE BofAML Global High Yield Index / 25% ICE BofAML Global Corporate Index (TR) (Hedged to CAD). Defensive positioning and portfolio hedging were the primary drivers of the underperformance in the quarter.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 10, 2023

Read Time: 4 minutes

Macro Implications of the Tough-Talking Fed

Inflation concerns persist in the final quarter of the year. We had previously looked forward to signs of a recovery rally toward the end of 2022, but one of the three conditions – the U.S. Federal Reserve willing to pause its aggressive tightening stance – appears unlikely. The other two conditions – inflation reaching its peak and the economy stabilizing – could soon be in place. But we remain concerned that equities may hit new bear market lows before they can stage a meaningful rally.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Oct 13, 2022

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at September 30, 2022

Q3 was a story of two halves with the first half consisting of a rebound across most risk assets. While the second half was a resumption of the 2022 theme of declining and volatile financial markets due to higher-than-expected inflation data and subsequent hawkish central banks. Recession fears caused the second half sell-off in equity and fixed income markets to spill over into other growth-related assets and inflation hedges.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Oct 12, 2022

Read Time: 9 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at September 30, 2022

We’re confident that inflation is peaking and will likely decline substantially from current levels. We are also confident in our belief that the economy is set to slow. We remain concerned that equities may hit new bear market lows before staging a meaningful rally.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 12, 2022

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Absolute Alpha Commentary: As at September 30, 2022

While traditional asset markets have performed poorly in 2022, the Fund continue to provide safety and positive returns in an environment where capital preservation is important.

Source: Neil Simons

Publish Date: Oct 12, 2022

Read Time: 4 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at September 30, 2022

The arbitrage funds rebounded in the third quarter, with Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Alternative Fund Cl F returning 1.05%, and Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Plus Alternative Fund Cl F returning 1.75%.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 7, 2022

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at September 30, 2022

In Q3, the Picton Mahoney Fortified Income Fund Cl F returned -1.9% and the Picton Mahoney Fortified Income Alternative Fund Cl F returned -1.3% outperforming the blended benchmark composed of 75% ICE BofAML Global High Yield Index / 25% ICE BofAML Global Corporate Index (TR) (Hedged to CAD). Defensive positioning and portfolio hedging primarily drove the outperformance in the quarter.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 7, 2022

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Uncertainty Creates Opportunity:
Today's Need for Long-Short Credit

After a crushing first half of 2022, the bond market rallied this summer as investors observed early signs of inflation peaking and became hopeful for a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy pause. The reprieve was short-lived as the Fed reinforced their hawkish stance and their commitment to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down.

Source: Fixed Income Team

Publish Date: Sep 9, 2022

Run Time: 7 minutes

Macro Headwinds Remain, But Reason for Optimism

Risk assets still face significant headwinds as the second half of 2022 begins. Inflation has remained stubbornly high, the U.S. Federal Reserve seems determined to restore price stability, and the economy is expected to decelerate quickly. Investors need to be patient and wait for these headwinds to turn into tailwinds. When tailwinds do emerge, equities may stage a sharp rally given that current sentiment is extremely bearish.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Jul 19, 2022

Commentary Picton Mahoney Fortified Multi-Asset Fund Monthly Positioning: As at June 30, 2022

Though our economic cycle model has seen increasing odds of recession, we believe central bank policymakers may eventually cede their hawkish stance given a likely combination of inflation readings, easing and further weakness in broader economic data.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 15, 2022

Read Time: 6 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at June 30, 2022

The most notable macroeconomic theme in Q2 was the ongoing hawkishness of Central Banks around the world along with financial markets increasingly pricing in a global growth slowdown. Most asset classes were lower over the quarter with higher government bonds yields impacting equity valuations and credit spreads while the expectations of slower economic growth impacted growth sensitive commodities.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jul 15, 2022

Read Time: 10 minutes

Commentary Absolute Alpha Commentary: As at June 30, 2022

We believe this short-term correlation and underperformance of strategies is temporary in nature and believe sourcing returns from non-directional, uncorrelated strategies is the best long-term strategy.

Source: Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jul 13, 2022

Read Time: 4 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at June 30, 2022

While headwind inflation is not rolling over and there are no signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve will become less aggressive, we expect this to change in the coming months ahead as economic data worsens and inflation falls, leading to the Fed moderating their rate tightening relative to expectations.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 13, 2022

Read Time: 6 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at June 30, 2022

In Q2, the Picton Mahoney Fortified Income Fund (Class F) returned -4.53% and the Picton Mahoney Fortified Income Alternative Fund (Class F) returned -3.66% outperforming the blended benchmark composed of 75% ICE BofAML Global High Yield Index / 25% ICE BofAML Global Corporate Index (TR) (Hedged to CAD). Defensive positioning and portfolio hedging primarily drove the outperformance in the quarter.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 6, 2022

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at June 30, 2022

Our arbitrage funds were modestly negative for the quarter (-1.11% and -2.23%, respectively for Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Fund Cl F and Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Plus Fund Cl F) in what were very challenging markets for most asset classes. The attribution of this quarter’s performance was roughly two-thirds due to merger arbitrage and one-third due to special purpose acquisition corporations (“SPACs”).

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 6, 2022

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Inflation Outlook - Market Implications and What's Next?

Our view on inflation following the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates by 75 bps.

Source: Shechar Dworski, PhD, CFA

Publish Date: Jun 16, 2022

Read Time: 6 minutes

Commentary From the Bond Desk: Breaking Down Bonds

As we all know, it’s been a tough year for bonds and the market is still struggling to find its bearings as the U.S. Federal Reserve, economic indicators, and financial conditions create uncertainty for investors. So many questions! But perhaps the most important question of all is what should investors do with fixed income allocations right now amidst the uncertainties.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Jun 3, 2022

Read Time: 8 minutes

Commentary Picton Mahoney Fortified Multi-Asset Fund Monthly Positioning: As at April 30, 2022

We remain firm in the view that we are in the midst of some form of mid-cycle slowdown, exacerbated by sanctions and trade impacts from the war in Ukraine and ongoing COVID issues in China.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: May 20, 2022

Read Time: 6 minutes

Macro Headwinds Abound, Building a Wall of Worry; Tailwinds To Emerge Later This Year

The headwinds that we discussed last quarter continue to pressure risk assets, but with even more force than we initially anticipated, as a result of several new developments. However, we expect these headwinds to continue into the summer months before beginning to dissipate, and then eventually yielding to tailwinds that could drive the next upward move for stocks.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Apr 26, 2022

Portfolio Construction The Benefits of Adding Alternatives to A Portfolio

An investment portfolio can hold many assets – but most Canadians have just two, stocks and bonds. Historically the two have been a lucrative combination, however in recent years, with low interest rates on bond investments, their combined diversification benefit has been somewhat eroded.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Apr 20, 2022

Read Time: 7 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at March 31, 2022

The combined challenges of slowing economic growth and a shift in central bank policy response to rising inflation have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 20, 2022

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at March 31, 2022

The war in Ukraine may continue to give some pause to the potential for aggressive / continued rate hikes and uncomfortable inflation continues to hold, exacerbated in many ways by the situation in Ukraine and assertive sanctions placed on Russia.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Apr 20, 2022

Read Time: 9 minutes

Commentary Picton Mahoney Fortified Multi-Asset Fund Monthly Positioning: As at March 31, 2022

We continue to believe that the world is experiencing a mid-cycle slowdown, albeit exacerbated by sanctions and trade impacts from the war in Ukraine.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 20, 2022

Read Time: 6 minutes

Commentary Absolute Alpha Commentary: As at March 31, 2022

Despite increased hawkishness across global central bankers along with the war in Ukraine caused a significant amount of volatility in markets, the Fund continues to provide returns independent of market direction.

Source: Neil Simons

Publish Date: Apr 19, 2022

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at March 31, 2022

Our arbitrage funds were modestly positive in Q1, protecting capital in a difficult environment for stocks and bonds. The merger arbitrage portfolio benefitted from the closing of three large marquee deals in the quarter, and we continue to be active in buying SPAC common shares with attractive yields to maturity.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 18, 2022

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at March 31, 2022

Given the Fed’s use of financial conditions as a policy transmission mechanism to the real economy, we believe the resilience of equities and credit creates an awkward setup for the Fed as they may need to be even more aggressive than current expectations to effectively combat the risk of higher inflation.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 14, 2022

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Picton Mahoney Fortified Multi-Asset Fund Monthly Positioning: As at February 28, 2022

The war in Ukraine is certainly a new and appreciable risk dynamic, but we remain constructive that the global economic backdrop has not suffered enough to tip us into recession in the near-term.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: Mar 22, 2022

Read Time: 7 minutes

Commentary Ukraine/Russia Geopolitical Event -
Investment Team Commentary

The portfolio management teams of our major asset classes weigh in with their take on the very fluid situation in Ukraine, and the implications for our portfolios.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Feb 25, 2022

Run Time: 10 minutes

Commentary Picton Mahoney Fortified Multi-Asset Fund Monthly Positioning: As at January 31, 2022

Our house view maintains that headwinds will prevail in the first half of the year as a combination of slowing economic growth conflicts with interest rates significantly higher than when the growth slowdown began.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: Feb 23, 2022

Read Time: 6 minutes

Macro Q1 2022 Investment Review & Outlook: First-Half Woes, Second-Half Gains

The macro backdrop for the first half of 2022 is not very friendly and will likely feature a recalibration of asset prices to account for decelerating economic growth, high inflation readings and tightening monetary policy. The market cycle remains intact, but these near-term headwinds are likely to bring better buying opportunities that can take advantage of better tailwinds in the back half of 2022.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Feb 2, 2022

Commentary Absolute Alpha Commentary: As at December 31, 2021

Despite the emergence of the Omicron variant and the associated uncertainty around economic activity in Q4, the Fund continues to provide returns independent of market direction.

Source: Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jan 14, 2022

Read Time: 4 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at December 31, 2021

The emergence of the Omicron variant and the associated uncertainty around economic activity was most notable macroeconomic event in Q4 and diversification proved once again to be an effective tool.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jan 14, 2022

Read Time: 9 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at December 31, 2021

Over the coming quarters, we believe equity markets will need to navigate headwinds from monetary tightening and fading fiscal tailwinds.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 12, 2022

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at December 31, 2021

Interest rate and credit hedging, as well as defensive credit positioning were key contributors to the outperformance of our income funds during the quarter.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 12, 2022

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at December 31, 2021

The fourth quarter of 2021 was relatively straightforward for the arbitrage strategies as there were no deal breaks on the merger arbitrage side and special purpose acquisition corporations (“SPACs”) made a solid contribution to fund performance.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 12, 2022

Read Time: 4 minutes

Commentary Picton Mahoney Fortified Multi-Asset Fund Monthly Positioning: As at December 31, 2021

As we start a new year, we believe tactical opportunities will present themselves with respect to both hedging and adding to risk assets, depending on the macro backdrop in the months ahead.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 7, 2022

Read Time: 6 minutes

Commentary Picton Mahoney Fortified Multi-Asset Fund Monthly Positioning: As at November 30, 2021

With a focus on the diversification benefits, the Fund's positioning demonstrates how our approach to garnering returns within each asset class is unique and suits our portfolio construction framework.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: Dec 17, 2021

Read Time: 6 minutes

Commentary Picton Mahoney Fortified Multi-Asset Fund Monthly Positioning: As at October 31, 2021

With a focus on the diversification benefits, the Fund's positioning demonstrates how our approach to garnering returns within each asset class is unique and suits our portfolio construction framework.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: Dec 1, 2021

Read Time: 6 minutes

Macro Q4 2021 Investment Review & Outlook: Opportunities Now, Inflation Debate Later

As COVID and supply chain issues ease around the world, inflationary pressures are expected to diminish somewhat over the next few quarters. The pandemic was a once-in-a-century event, but the market cycle is proceeding as it typically does.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Nov 9, 2021

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at September 30, 2021

As we go into the Fall, we believe we are starting the final chapter of a mid-cycle transition.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 15, 2021

Read Time: 6 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at September 30, 2021

Monthly performance across risk markets was mixed through Q3, with early gains diminished somewhat by weakness in September.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Oct 15, 2021

Read Time: 9 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at September 30, 2021

In our last update we talked about the wide spreads we were seeing in merger arbitrage but also the greater regulatory risk that we believe was at least partially causing these wider spreads. In Q3, we saw some of this uncertainty rear its head.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 15, 2021

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at September 30, 2021

Defensive positioning and hedging gains in September were a key contributor to the outperformance in the quarter.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 15, 2021

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Absolute Alpha Commentary: As at September 30, 2021

Q3 was bifurcated with the upward movement in global equity markets in July and August followed by a reversal through September. The Fund was successful in providing positive returns independent of markets.

Source: Neil Simons

Publish Date: Oct 15, 2021

Read Time: 4 minutes

Portfolio Construction When De-risking Portfolios Don't Jump, Take The Stairs

Investors often respond to market volatility by raising cash, however, they may miss out on capturing returns when markets recover. Here are four alternative ideas to consider when de-risking portfolios without going to cash.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Aug 9, 2021

Macro Q3 2021 Investment Review & Outlook: The Beginning of the Middle (Not the End)

While many metrics are already as good as it gets, all this pent-up demand coupled with low interest rates still sets us on approach to a nice, long runway to economic growth.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Jul 30, 2021

Commentary Absolute Alpha Commentary: As at June 30, 2021

In Q2, the Fund was successful in providing positive returns independent of markets. Portfolio risk remained at the lower end of our expected range. Given the uncertain outlook, diversification will continue to be the most prudent approach.

Source: Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jul 30, 2021

Read Time: 4 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at June 30, 2021

The second quarter of 2021 can be characterized as “back to business as usual” for the arbitrage strategies, with notable developments in M&A during the period.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 15, 2021

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at June 30, 2021

Q2 was generally positive risk market, with reopening themes adding to gains, but colling toward the end of the period. Given the increasingly uncertain outlook, we continue to uphold “diversification” as the watchword.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jul 15, 2021

Read Time: 9 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at June 30, 2021

Equity markets continued to go higher in Q2, but rotation in the market has already started amid concerns of peak economic growth, higher inflation, and peak monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 15, 2021

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at June 30, 2021

We continue to be very active with new idea generation and have added several new special situation investments to our funds during the quarter.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 15, 2021

Read Time: 4 minutes

Portfolio Construction Picton Mahoney's Top Summer Reads

We surveyed the team at Picton Mahoney Asset Management and have put together a list of their top recommended books for the summer.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: May 21, 2021

Macro Q2 2021 Investment Review & Outlook:
What a Difference a Year Makes

Stock markets rallied dramatically over the past year. Given we are still early in a new economic cycle, we expect investors will continue to buy. However, any increase in inflation expectations that drive interest rates higher would give us pause.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Apr 29, 2021

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at March 31, 2021

As interest rates rose with some vigor in the quarter, thematic performance continued to shift in notable fashion. Against this backdrop, “diversification” continued to be the watchword…

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Apr 15, 2021

Read Time: 8 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at March 31, 2021

Q1 was eventful for fixed income as global government bond yields rose rapidly during the period. Our interest rate hedges and event driven situations were primary contributors to our funds during the quarter.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 15, 2021

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at March 31, 2021

Q1 was a tale of two halves, but the Merger Arb strategies ended with solid returns despite the uncharacteristic volatility for the strategies in the 2nd half of the quarter.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 15, 2021

Read Time: 4 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at March 31, 2021

Q1 of 2021 provided some interesting market dynamics to for the Equity team to navigate, and opportunistically capitalize on, as we saw another market unwind occur.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 15, 2021

Read Time: 8 minutes

Portfolio Construction Getting Additional Insight into Portfolio Risk

While volatility has become the preferred measure of risk, we layout additional tools investors can use to understand risk.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Feb 12, 2021

Read Time: 3 minutes

Macro Q1 2021 Investment Review & Outlook: Building the Bubble

Unprecedented monetary stimulus, ongoing fiscal support and the end of COVID-related lockdowns may lead to the strongest surge in global economic growth in decades.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Feb 3, 2021

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at December 31, 2020

With no shortage of macro headline risks (global pandemic, high-stakes U.S. Election, Brexit finality), one would wonder how risk markets have managed to stay in gear at all.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Jan 15, 2021

Read Time: 8 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at December 31, 2020

Given the stretched valuations in fixed income we believe it’s a great opportunity to layer in hedges in both credit and rates to reduce potential volatility.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 15, 2021

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at December 31, 2020

The Canadian equity market rallied during Q4 with optimism on the arrival of a COVID-19 vaccine leading to a rotation of leadership into cyclical and COVID recovery stocks.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA | Travis Irwin, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 15, 2021

Read Time: 9 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at December 31, 2020

The Merger Arbitrage strategies performed well during Q4 2020 as SPACs continued to deliver strong contributions to the overall performance of the strategies.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Jan 15, 2021

Read Time: 3 minutes

Portfolio Construction How Well Does Volatility Measure Risk

It can be argued that volatility has limitations that make it an inadequate measure of risk, especially in connection with alternative investments.

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Dec 15, 2020

Read Time: 5 minutes

Macro Q4 2020 Investment Review & Outlook:
Full Steam Ahead (Almost)

As indications of a new economic cycle begin to emerge, investors might want to consider the hidden risks of the return of an inflationary environment.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Nov 11, 2020

Macro Q4 2020 Income Insights^TM:
Making Sense of Senseless

In a zero-rate world, with record low yields, “bonds are broken” – but a long-short approach and focus on correlation can still support long-term returns.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA

Publish Date: Nov 5, 2020

Run Time: 17 minutes

Commentary Fixed Income Commentary: As at September 30, 2020

With fiscal stimulus, steady economic improvement and vaccine prospects supporting risk assets, our actively managed fixed income funds outperformed their benchmarks.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 23, 2020

Read Time: 2 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at September 30, 2020

Rich diversification options in our multi-strategy funds helped our managers mitigate volatility, limit risks and post good-quality returns in Q3.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Oct 23, 2020

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at September 30, 2020

Q3 saw a rebound in North America, but less so internationally, with a new economic cycle still forestalled by volatility and COVID-related unknowns.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 21, 2020

Read Time: 9 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at September 30, 2020

As COVID-19 restrictions eased in Q3, strong M&A activity and a vigorous SPAC market helped our merger arbitrage strategies deliver strong quarterly performance.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Oct 21, 2020

Read Time: 3 minutes

Macro Q3 2020 Income Insights^TM

Our Fixed Income team explains how careful positioning has addressed credit markets roiled by the recent crisis – and by unprecedented fiscal stimulus.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA | Ashley Kay

Publish Date: Aug 21, 2020

Run Time: 27 minutes

Macro Q3 2020 Investment Review & Outlook:
What's the Plan

Fiscal stimulus has fuelled a strong rebound. Risk assets are attractive, but we are cautious, given the lack of long-term national recovery plans.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Jul 31, 2020

Run Time: 27 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at June 30, 2020

Q2 earnings will reflect recent troughs, but North America and China continue to rally, with cyclicals offering potential, and Europe showing promise.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 16, 2020

Read Time: 8 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at June 30, 2020

The economic and financial market volatility of Q1 2020 provided us with an abundance of arbitrage opportunities that led to strong performance in Q2.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Jul 16, 2020

Read Time: 3 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at May 31, 2020

As markets recover, active positioning and strategic diversification help our multi-asset strategies perform during the period.

Source: Michael White, CFA

Publish Date: Jun 10, 2020

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at April 30, 2020

Although coming off historical troughs, markets remain stable and well-supported; select sectors could outperform as economies continue to reopen.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA

Publish Date: May 13, 2020

Read Time: 8 minutes

Macro The GFC Playbook for the War on COVID-19

David Picton provides an overview of the markets and a road map that the investment team is using to navigate the COVID crisis.

Source: David Picton

Publish Date: Apr 23, 2020

Run Time: 26 minutes

Macro Q2 2020 Investment Review & Outlook:
The GFC Playbook for the War on COVID-19

Government measures are addressing health and economic crises head on; we believe risk assets bottomed in March, and suggest positioning for a rise.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Apr 23, 2020

Run Time: 26 minutes

Macro Q2 2020 Income Insights^TM:
Position Your Fixed Income for the Other Side

Phil Mesman discusses the three phases of the sell-off and provides advisors with insights on how to position their fixed income for the other side.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 21, 2020

Run Time: 35 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at March 31, 2020

Q1 saw a worldwide pandemic, a full-blown global shutdown, unprecedented fiscal stimulus – and signs of a rebound and perhaps the path to a recovery.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs, CFA | Michael Kimmel, CFA | Michael Kuan, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 15, 2020

Read Time: 12 minutes

Investment Insights Masterclass: Investment Strategies in Market Volatility

David Picton joins an industry panel to discuss the market crisis and where opportunities may lie following radical and even permanent market changes.

Source: David Picton

Publish Date: Apr 14, 2020

Run Time: 1 hour 5 minutes

Commentary Multi-Asset Strategies Commentary: As at March 31, 2020

In the worst market collapse and selloff since the GFC, our multi-strategy funds performed well, and are positioned to participate as markets improve.

Source: Michael White, CFA | Neil Simons

Publish Date: Apr 9, 2020

Read Time: 8 minutes

Commentary Merger Arbitrage Commentary: As at March 31, 2020

Strategic de-risking and a steady hand kept our merger arbitrage strategies resilient in the face of severe declines and volatility from pandemic and oil shocks.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 8, 2020

Read Time: 5 minutes

Commentary Equity Commentary: As at March 31, 2020

Unprecedented volatility and broad changes to business and consumer behaviour are creating a wealth of opportunities for active management.

Source: David Picton | Jeff Bradacs

Publish Date: Apr 1, 2020

Read Time: 6 minutes

Commentary Sector Outlook: Financials

While Canadian banks are better capitalized than they were during the GFC, the sector may not be immune from today’s real economic stresses.

Source: Robert Poole, CFA

Publish Date: Mar 26, 2020

Read Time: 6 minutes

Macro Income Insights^TM on Market Volatility

Our Fixed Income team provides discussion and insight around their macro house view, liquidity in bond ETFs, navigating risks and preferred shares.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA | Ashley Kay

Publish Date: Mar 19, 2020

Run Time: 49 minutes

Investment Insights Picton Mahoney on What Happens to M&A Now

Craig Chilton and Tom Savage discuss the effects of market volatility on existing M&A transactions and the state of the current M&A environment.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Mar 17, 2020

Run Time: 20 minutes

Macro The Great Interruption: Picton Mahoney Conference Call on Market Volatility

On March 12, we held a special conference call with our portfolio managers addressing market volatility.

Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Mar 12, 2020

Run Time: 25 minutes

Investment Insights Portfolio Diversification Using Merger Arbitrage

Merger arbitrage strategies offer diversification, because their returns have little correlation to traditional stock and bond portfolios.

Source: Craig Chilton, CFA | Tom Savage, CFA

Publish Date: Feb 27, 2020

Run Time: 20 minutes

Macro Income Insights^TM:
What Next? Positioning your Fixed Income for 2020

A “tsunami driven by government bond yields” has created vulnerabilities that may prevent bonds from offering their traditional income and protection.

Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Feb 14, 2020

Run Time: 22 minutes

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