Macro

Featured Insights

Macro The Fork in the Road Equities seem to be approaching a fork in the road. If a soft economic landing is in the cards, the rally we’ve seen thus far this year could continue. But signs of a recession could spoil the party, and our read of the data suggests a contraction is the more likely outcome at this point. Considering that valuations remain lofty and the U.S. Federal Reserve is still hawkish, we are cautious as the second half of 2023 begins. Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management Publish Date: Jul 18, 2023 Read Time: 1 minute
Macro Through the Eye of the Hurricane: Final Stages of the Storm Should Create Opportunity There’s calm in the eye of a hurricane, and that period of calm may now be behind us as we enter another phase of market turbulence, spurred in part by the U.S. regional bank failures in March. With the U.S. Federal Reserve actively battling inflation, we believe an economic contraction is likely as we enter the second quarter, and a retesting of 2022 market lows remains quite possible. Learn why we think the final stages of the storm should create opportunity. Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management Publish Date: Apr 17, 2023

Recent Insights

Macro Retest Risks Should Create Longer-Term Opportunities
Attention is steadily shifting from inflation concerns to recession risks. Inflation seems to have peaked and recession probabilities have increased considerably. We expect global markets to retest their 2022 lows in the first half of the year, which could force central banks to back off their tightening policies, setting the stage for the next cyclical upturn. The Fed may increasingly find itself in a bind: trying to tighten its way out of a supply-driven inflationary environment with the blunt instrument of monetary policy.
Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Jan 12, 2023
Macro Implications of the Tough-Talking Fed
Inflation concerns persist in the final quarter of the year. We had previously looked forward to signs of a recovery rally toward the end of 2022, but one of the three conditions – the U.S. Federal Reserve willing to pause its aggressive tightening stance – appears unlikely. The other two conditions – inflation reaching its peak and the economy stabilizing – could soon be in place. But we remain concerned that equities may hit new bear market lows before they can stage a meaningful rally.
Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Oct 13, 2022
Macro Headwinds Remain, But Reason for Optimism
Risk assets still face significant headwinds as the second half of 2022 begins. Inflation has remained stubbornly high, the U.S. Federal Reserve seems determined to restore price stability, and the economy is expected to decelerate quickly. Investors need to be patient and wait for these headwinds to turn into tailwinds. When tailwinds do emerge, equities may stage a sharp rally given that current sentiment is extremely bearish.
Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Publish Date: Jul 19, 2022
Macro Headwinds Abound, Building a Wall of Worry; Tailwinds To Emerge Later This Year
The headwinds that we discussed last quarter continue to pressure risk assets, but with even more force than we initially anticipated, as a result of several new developments. However, we expect these headwinds to continue into the summer months before beginning to dissipate, and then eventually yielding to tailwinds that could drive the next upward move for stocks.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Apr 26, 2022
Macro Q1 2022 Investment Review & Outlook: First-Half Woes, Second-Half Gains
The macro backdrop for the first half of 2022 is not very friendly and will likely feature a recalibration of asset prices to account for decelerating economic growth, high inflation readings and tightening monetary policy. The market cycle remains intact, but these near-term headwinds are likely to bring better buying opportunities that can take advantage of better tailwinds in the back half of 2022.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Feb 2, 2022
Macro Q4 2021 Investment Review & Outlook: Opportunities Now, Inflation Debate Later
As COVID and supply chain issues ease around the world, inflationary pressures are expected to diminish somewhat over the next few quarters. The pandemic was a once-in-a-century event, but the market cycle is proceeding as it typically does.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Nov 9, 2021
Macro Q3 2021 Investment Review & Outlook: The Beginning of the Middle (Not the End)
While many metrics are already as good as it gets, all this pent-up demand coupled with low interest rates still sets us on approach to a nice, long runway to economic growth.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Jul 30, 2021
Macro Q2 2021 Investment Review & Outlook:
What a Difference a Year Makes
Stock markets rallied dramatically over the past year. Given we are still early in a new economic cycle, we expect investors will continue to buy. However, any increase in inflation expectations that drive interest rates higher would give us pause.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Apr 29, 2021
Macro Q1 2021 Investment Review & Outlook: Building the Bubble
Unprecedented monetary stimulus, ongoing fiscal support and the end of COVID-related lockdowns may lead to the strongest surge in global economic growth in decades.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Feb 3, 2021
Macro Q4 2020 Investment Review & Outlook:
Full Steam Ahead (Almost)
As indications of a new economic cycle begin to emerge, investors might want to consider the hidden risks of the return of an inflationary environment.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Nov 11, 2020
Macro Q4 2020 Income Insights^TM:
Making Sense of Senseless
In a zero-rate world, with record low yields, “bonds are broken” – but a long-short approach and focus on correlation can still support long-term returns.
Source: Phil Mesman, CFA

Publish Date: Nov 5, 2020

Run Time: 17 minutes
Macro Q3 2020 Income Insights^TM
Our Fixed Income team explains how careful positioning has addressed credit markets roiled by the recent crisis – and by unprecedented fiscal stimulus.
Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA | Ashley Kay

Publish Date: Aug 21, 2020

Run Time: 27 minutes
Macro Q3 2020 Investment Review & Outlook:
What's the Plan
Fiscal stimulus has fuelled a strong rebound. Risk assets are attractive, but we are cautious, given the lack of long-term national recovery plans.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Jul 31, 2020

Run Time: 27 minutes
Macro The GFC Playbook for the War on COVID-19
David Picton provides an overview of the markets and a road map that the investment team is using to navigate the COVID crisis.
Source: David Picton

Publish Date: Apr 23, 2020

Run Time: 26 minutes
Macro Q2 2020 Investment Review & Outlook:
The GFC Playbook for the War on COVID-19
Government measures are addressing health and economic crises head on; we believe risk assets bottomed in March, and suggest positioning for a rise.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Apr 23, 2020

Run Time: 26 minutes
Macro Q2 2020 Income Insights^TM:
Position Your Fixed Income for the Other Side
Phil Mesman discusses the three phases of the sell-off and provides advisors with insights on how to position their fixed income for the other side.
Source: Phil Mesman, CFA

Publish Date: Apr 21, 2020

Run Time: 35 minutes
Macro Income Insights^TM on Market Volatility
Our Fixed Income team provides discussion and insight around their macro house view, liquidity in bond ETFs, navigating risks and preferred shares.
Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA | Ashley Kay

Publish Date: Mar 19, 2020

Run Time: 49 minutes
Macro The Great Interruption: Picton Mahoney Conference Call on Market Volatility
On March 12, we held a special conference call with our portfolio managers addressing market volatility.
Source: Investment Team

Publish Date: Mar 12, 2020

Run Time: 25 minutes
Macro Income Insights^TM:
What Next? Positioning your Fixed Income for 2020
A “tsunami driven by government bond yields” has created vulnerabilities that may prevent bonds from offering their traditional income and protection.
Source: Phil Mesman, CFA | Sam Acton, CFA

Publish Date: Feb 14, 2020

Run Time: 22 minutes